Independent Strategy

What’s shaping the trade revival

As vaccination rates in advanced nations move them closer to herd immunity and their economies fully reopen — at least to domestic demand drivers — we should see a further push higher from already improving global trade flows. Companies have been investing for this, having continued to spend on capex during the pandemic. But the uneven resolution of the crisis still presents problems for global supply chains. This increases the probability that the recovery in demand will feed into prices. We remain short developed market bonds and expect yield curves to continue to steepen.

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