Greece faces parliamentary elections as soon as 25 January following the failure of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras to install his…
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By declaring an early presidential election, Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras has taken the initiative. He has backed his position…
The dual pressure of Western sanctions and the decline in oil prices is a toxic mix for President Putin. It…
The ECB is set to introduce ‘full blown’ quantitative easing (QE) early in 2015. Other methods of credit injections will…
The Italian economy is similar to the proverbial frog in the slowly warming pan of water. The frog knows it…
The risk that the UK may decide to leave the EU within the next few years has risen with the…
Artificial intelligence (AI) is with us now and should be part of any investment strategy. AI extends the reach of…
Downside economic risks warranting preparation of new extraordinary measures and a quantification of ECB balance sheet expansion were the two…
Japanese pension giant GPIF’s asset rotation is more modest than it looks at first glance. The real impact is from…
The human cost of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa has been shocking but the risk this develops into a…
The recent dramatic fall in the crude oil price poses the question: is this just a blip due to temporary…
The market is beginning to recognize that the rally in Eurozone (EZ) peripheral debt has been detached from economic fundamentals.…
Spain has been used as a poster child for austerity medicine, receiving constant praise from the Troika for its efforts.…
We have been long equities for a very long time. We are now closing these long positions. The motivation is…
There are three factors that have turned Brazil’s fast expansion of the early 2000s into stagflation: a poorer external environment;…
Civil disobedience in Hong Kong is a challenging problem for Beijing. Democracy campaigners are not willing to compromise, nor are…
Markets will take a benign view of the upcoming asset quality review (AQR). Banks have been raising capital and increasing…
The outcome of the Scottish independence referendum is likely to be close. We think ultimately Scotland will vote ‘no’, against…
The productivity of labour matters to investors. If we are stuck with low GDP and productivity (GDP per worker) growth,…
The ECB is to undertake quantitative easing (QE), buying private sector assets (ABS and covered bonds) starting in October. Policy…
There are six key positions that are our strongest convictions alongside our continued (but getting tired) long equity view. They…
Japan’s deteriorating trade deficit exposes one of the biggest problems with Abenomics. It places too much weight on the Bank…
Cheap money has encouraged listed corporates to shift business models away from capital investment to inflating earnings per share via…
As inflation rises global capital will be repriced. The process will start in the US, though the UK may be…
The odds are that global energy prices will not rise significantly over the next decade or so. The international agencies…
ECB President Draghi may have failed to deliver a full-blown QE programme in June. But the market is underestimating the…
The ECB may not have launched its bazooka but the move to negative deposit rates and targeted LTROs is a…
Current valuations fully reflect the good things about New Zealand, they do nothing to factor in developing risks. House price…
Mexico’s reform agenda has progressed swiftly over the past year with legislation passed restructuring a number of key sectors. To…
Draghi has committed the ECB to action in June when the governing council will have the crutch of the latest…
The Japanese recovery is vulnerable. Confidence deteriorated ahead of April’s consumption tax rise and inflation is eroding modest (if rare)…
Global leverage has not decreased. It has risen. But while everyone is still focused on the major culprit — sovereign…
The annexation of Crimea is irreversible. But the West appears determined to curtail any further Russian encroachment, into Ukraine or…
Increasing weather-related natural disasters are probably related to global warming. Even if they are not, governments and investors need to…
The ECB needs to engineer a quickening of inflation across the region to avoid deviating further from its inflation target.…
Artificial intelligence (AI) is no longer science fiction. AI will replace and improve on most, if not all, human productive…
Even if the West’s response to the Ukraine crisis looks toothless, the longer-term impact should not be underestimated. It will…
Last Wednesday was a “good day at the office” for new Italian PM Matteo Renzi. True to his nickname of…
There are five key issues that need to be addressed for investment strategy. First, the rate of global economic growth…
Matteo Renzi is to become Italy’s next Prime Minister. His success will hinge on his economic programme which should be…
The European parliamentary elections are likely to deliver significant gains to populist parties. At face value, this suggests further political…
The German Constitutional Court’s decision to ask for qualification from the European Court of Justice (ECJ) before making its own…
