The Spanish election looks to be turning into the worst possible outcome, neither side, left or right, will be capable…
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Managing the renminbi via a trade weighted index can be seen as part of the economic reform process. It makes…
The Fed can feel vindicated; markets have positively digested the first rate hike in nearly a decade, marking the start…
We are increasing our short Chinese renminbi position and adding to our Asian EM currency shorts, with Korea and Taiwan…
While the market may have been underwhelmed by the latest ECB policy steps, Draghi’s programme will remain a powerful headwind…
Disruptive technologies have always been the cause of economic strides. Manufacturing replaced the artisan. Electricity revolutionised industry. The train and…
Putin’s aggression first in Ukraine and now in Syria was roundly criticised. But following the recent terrorist attacks in Paris…
If you thought that the “resolution” of the Greek bailout crisis in the summer would give the EU project breathing…
The fall of Portugal’s minority centre-right government is significant. It takes place in the face of a generalised rise in…
The UK will vote to stay in the EU. It is highly likely that UK Prime Minister David Cameron can…
We think that the US Fed will be forced to normalise policy because of tightening labour markets. This would mark…
About this economic recovery, four things strike. First, services (“intangibles”) are ticking along nicely, but manufacturing is a disaster. Second, developed markets…
Pine trees look awfully similar, so perhaps we should be more forgiving when the Riksbank continually barks up the wrong…
Pro-independence parties look set to win a majority in the regional Catalan parliament this weekend. This could open up protracted…
The Fed’s hold is simply a postponement of the inevitable first hike, which is most probably in December. EM risks are…
The shift in the Chinese exchange rate policy reinforces our strategic positions of being short renminbi (see our report China…
Italy’s economic track record has been pretty woeful in recent years. The economy has been dogged by high and rising…
PM Abe’s economic strategy consists of monetary stimulus, fiscal reform and the famous structural ‘third arrow’. His achievements are paltry.…
The world is entering a completely new capex cycle. Investment in innovatory technology is not being adequately captured by the…
A Greek deal is now more likely (60% probability from 40%). It is likely to be based on poor economics…
Quantitative easing has done financial markets the power of good. But a host of long-range valuation measures are beginning to…
Turkish and Greek developments and potential negative outcomes leave Europe with a rotten south eastern border, constituted by two NATO…
Much has been written about the rise in inequality over the past three decades, the debate reaching its crescendo last…
What if the ambitions of central bankers were to come true? Inflation rises and unemployment falls to “reasonable” levels. That…
Eurozone (EZ) monetary policy is finally delivering as the effects of earlier rate cuts, ongoing asset purchases and the weaker…
A deal to suspend development of Iran’s nuclear programme might avert a more immediate showdown, but it will leave few…
Deflation is the villain that every major country’s central bank has in its sights. But deflation is not necessarily a…
The structure of the ECB’s QE programme confirms our short euro versus long US dollar position. We also maintain our…
In Europe, the most lasting legacy of the financial crisis looks set to be the change in the political landscape…
Japan’s government pension investment fund (GPIF) continues to rotate into higher yielding assets. This flow remains supportive for local stocks…
Eurozone data continues to surprise on the positive side, a theme that should persist over the first half of the…
While the latest Ukraine ceasefire deal promises an immediate halt of violence, it cedes more territory to pro-Russian rebels and…
The probability of a timely deal between the Greeks and the EU is now down to 35% (from 50%) and…
Rational players would avoid a showdown on Greece. But the new Syriza government has not embarked on such a course.…
Despite the challenges of deflation, the ECB looks to have been relatively successful in easing monetary conditions in the Eurozone.…
Korea’s economy is almost a poster child for economic imbalances. It is dependent on increasingly concentrated exports. Domestic demand as…
Slowing domestic growth and deflation risks posed by a combination of weak global demand and rapid US dollar appreciation are…
