The anger vote has claimed its next victim — Italian reform. The dominoes of Brexit, Trump and now Italy (but…
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The outcome of the Italian referendum is binary. If it’s a ‘yes’ vote the tide of populism throughout Europe would…
It’s another reason to stay short Italian bonds. We also add a short position in Irish bonds. Ireland managed to…
The reaction of financial markets to Trump’s election is explainable by expectations of tax cuts and rising fiscal spending. This…
Populism substitutes gut feel ignorance for rational policy. In the guise of President Trump, it heralds an age of insularity…
Inflation is coming back. Will it boost corporate profits and investment, relieving the consumer of the burden of driving global…
Clinton will win the presidency for two reasons. She provides a semblance of normality compared to the hot-headedness of Trump.…
Russia and the West have embarked on a new type of cold war. A Clinton presidency will mean further face-offs…
Free capital, like free water, is never going to be used productively. So it should be no surprise that central…
We are sticking to our strategic short position for sterling versus the US dollar and revising our target down to…
It is time to take out insurance against a gradual ending of central bank largesse. Sovereign bond yield curve steepeners…
Robert Gordon’s gloomy hypothesis of perpetually slow economic growth looks credible at first glance, but on closer examination it is…
The British government under PM Theresa May has announced that Brexit negotiations will no later than end-March 2017. So Britain…
There is no simple fix to Deutsche Bank’s problems. Really they are just an oversized example of the structural frailties…
We’re unlikely to see the real colour of President Xi Jinping’s zeal until after the appointment of the next Politburo…
The global anger vote will have lasting effects on politics and, with it, the long-term economic outlook. It is reshaping…
Sentiment towards Poland has been tarnished by the more populist mutterings of the PiS government. But Poland remains a highly…
The post-Brexit Conservative government in the UK under Theresa May has a clear run in negotiating with the EU over…
India’s reform credentials have been questionable at best. The administration of PM Modi has fallen into the traditional trap of…
The slow economic normalisation under way since the global financial crisis has been running hand in hand with another process.…
There are signs of life in DM demand after the spring soft patch. That provides some positive news for Asian…
Turkish President Erdogan has resumed control over the country after a military coup against his regime fizzled out. Turkey is…
This is one of those moments in history when politics matter as much as economics for financial markets. The rise…
There are five options for the UK’s future trading relationship with the EU once it has left. There is the…
The legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been underpinned by rising living standards. But as trend growth rates…
However you look at it, avoiding Brexit looks like an outlier scenario. So Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty should…
Post-Brexit referendum crisis
What if the UK said yes to Brexit?
Our base case is that the UK will vote to remain in the EU. But the shift in the polls…
Although the polls continue to suggest the UK’s in/out referendum is too close to call, we maintain the view that…
Draghi’s rhetoric only goes so far. The ECB is failing to meet its inflation mandate by an increasing margin. The…
The long US dollar trade has been a rather testing one so far this year. Weaker US growth and a…
Global equity markets are generally expensive. That’s because central bank largesse has inflated price (P). Meanwhile corporate profits (E) remain…
This paper discusses the fallout from a scenario called “stasis”. It would lead us to change many of our portfolio…
While central bankers sound dismissive when the question of helicopter money is raised, they were equally dismissive about NIRP. Deployment…
Low productivity growth has been a persistent feature since the Global Financial Crisis. Why? On balance our conclusion is that…
We are making two changes to our portfolio allocations. First, we are moving back to a short yen position. Second,…
The issue of Chinese capital flight might have fallen down the list of global risks, but this respite will be…
The Canadian dollar appears cheap. But appearances can be deceptive. Canada’s economic outlook is more fragile than that of the…
As central bankers push on through the looking glass with NIRP, markets will have to pay closer attention to the…
India has long been regarded as the best of a bad bunch in the EM universe, insulated in part by…
The inconclusive outcome to last weekend’s Irish general election raises two important points. First, none of the parties have a…
The Mexican peso was caught in an almost perfect storm over the past 18-months, wedged between the broad sell-off in…
Central bankers’ rhetoric often conveys a sense of omnipotence. But the evolution of the post-crisis economy clearly tells a different…
We are taking a strategic long gold position. The target return is 5-10% this year and a long-term gold price…
We owned a long yen position versus some of our Asian EM currency shorts. The BoJ’s switch to a negative…
There is no change in our currency forecasts. But the way they’ll happen has shifted. Our biggest shorts remain EM…
The deterioration in equity markets this year should not come as a complete surprise, the problems are not new. We…
Whichever method you use to measure capital flight from China the story is similar; around $100bn of cash is heading…
