The Catalonian election results won’t weigh on the euro or EU financial assets in the short term. Whether this holds…
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The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.
Demography is perhaps the single most important investment theme over the next half century. Many of its implications will begin…
Globalisation has been under assault. The loss of blue collar jobs has provided a captive audience for the anti-trade narrative…
The evolution of German coalition discussions leaves us more optimistic on a pro-European outcome. While we don’t expect an immediate…
While the mania for bitcoin continues unabated, it’s the technology underpinning this innovation — blockchain — that is the real…
The surprise collapse of German coalition negotiations leaves Chancellor Merkel stranded. She is now faced with trying to forge ahead…
When we wrote Of rabbits, bankers and what matters, 19 October 2017 we spoke of the factors that would set…
Borrowing more and drawing down on savings can only smooth the decline in the UK’s living standards triggered by Brexit.…
Central bankers’ reluctance to address the failings of their quantitative macro models (while overlooking the qualitative forces that are affecting…
ECB monetary policy will remain easier for longer, which means an extension of the asset purchase programme (APP) while maintaining…
Spanish PM Rajoy has miscalculated in Catalonia. The independence genie can’t be recorked. This adds a new layer of political…
Ultimately a nuclear North Korea is not acceptable. In the absence of a diplomatic miracle, the US will have to…
Politics rarely defines market trends, but it does alter risks in the shorter term. There is a clutch present in…
The CDU’s share of the vote may have shrunk but it remains the dominant party in Germany. This leaves Merkel…
The news headlines on massively damaging hurricanes, floods and heat waves are almost daily. Extreme weather is now the norm.…
President Xi is a communist ideologue committed to the supremacy of the Party. These ideals contradict many of China’s economic…
Europe is in the process of forging a new direction. This is a response to the realisation the European project…
Structural changes mean that inflation rates are likely to remain low. That makes it more challenging for central banks to…
Saudi Arabia has a brash young new crown prince who is directing economic and foreign policy. This will increase political…
There isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ model for populism. It’s hard to identify in advance why social pressures morph…
Despite South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s latest efforts to cool matters with the North, it is going to be a…
The US mainland is now potentially in range of North Korea’s growing nuclear arsenal. Diplomacy is past its sell-by date,…
The outlook for the UK economy is fraught with risks. Brexit creates obvious headwinds for consumers and corporations alike. We…
China’s monumental One Belt One Road (OBOR) project is beginning to take shape. OBOR may turn out to be even…
The outcome of the UK election is bad for sterling. We expect it to fall towards parity with the euro…
Nine years after the global financial crisis (GFC) most advanced economies have clambered above their pre-crisis peaks. But this disguises…
Novembers election of Donald Trump sparked the dollars last hurrah. Were now entering a weak dollar cycle. This is a…
Central banks have a good chance (80% or so) of controlling the reduction in their balance sheets and normalisation of…
We view Chinese steps to restrain leverage a positive development, proving that the authorities are equally capable of removing the…
Emmanuel Macron will become the next French president. He will have unfettered power to relaunch the EU with Germany post…
Our positive view of the Eurozone is predicated upon the rejection of populism in pending EU elections. The political developments…
Trump’s new foreign policy marks a seismic shift. It returns the US to its role as global policeman backed by…
Theresa May should easily get the required two-thirds of votes in parliament to call her surprise general election. The outcome…
It is easy to be pessimistic about the future of the EU. But disaster is not inevitable. There are several…
Emerging markets rebounded from the 2014-15 commodity price collapse with varying degrees of success. Most were forced to hike interest…
Eurozone bond yields continue to lag the improvement seen across the economy and the improvement in the global inflation outlook.…
We have argued that the greenback’s multi-year bull-run might last a couple more months. But it is over or ending.…
While we don’t think we’re on the cusp of persistently fast Eurozone inflation, the ECB’s price forecasts materially understate the…
Europe faces key elections this year. Uncertainty about the outcomes with the possibility of populist parties winning is driving up…
Brexit is about to begin in earnest. Yet the paucity of detail in the UK government’s White Paper betrays the…
The Chinese Communist party’s top leadership will be reshuffled at the end of 2017. The most likely outcome is that…
The dollar’s multi-year bull run might last a couple more months but its fundamental underpinnings are weakening. President Trump’s unpredictability…
The trouble with President Trump is what he is. There is no need for a psychological portrait of the man.…
China’s foreign exchange policy is evolving. The current offshore renminbi short squeeze and the exchange control measures introduced recently seek…
The “precautionary recapitalisation” of Monte dei Paschi should remove the Italian banking sector’s problems from the front pages for the…
