The Brexit deal is a major economic negative for the UK. The cost will become progressively apparent rather than result…
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The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.
David Roche gives an introduction to our report “Quantum Economics”. This piece explores how Quantum Mechanics influences macroeconomics and how…
The extensive support provided by monetary and fiscal policy marks this crisis as a very different one for the banks.…
The investment message below is that we are long equities. Not forever. But for now. And we prefer cyclical sectors…
The vaccine news and the Biden presidency combined keep us positive on equities, negative on global bonds, neutral the euro…
Erdogan’s removal of another central bank governor and the resignation of his son-in-law from the finance ministry points to a…
With Biden finally over the line (see our report US election: sorting husks from chaff, 7 November 2020), we outline…
The US election is over, bar the shouting (recounts and court cases). Unsurprisingly, Biden has won. But badly. His mandate…
We are taking off our long EUR, short USD position that we have held since June. We expect Biden to…
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are a reality; the timeframe for adoption is the uncertainty. Central bank involvement is not…
A Biden presidency wouldn’t exactly light up markets, but neither would it cause collapse. His election would still have some…
The public sector’s aggressive action prevented the Covid-crisis turning into another global financial crisis. But many of the remedies were…
Covid has caused plenty of economic pain across the world, but we have not seen much sign of specific Emerging…
We are waiting on the presidential election outturn to take a more positive stance on US financial assets, particularly equity…
Despite the bounce in the greenback over the past week, short US dollar and long euro and yen remain our…
Online product and service providers have been the main equity market winners so far this year. But the concentration of…
The results of the Italian regional elections and the approval of the electoral reform law by referendum last weekend should…
The Fed’s new monetary policy framework looks aggressive in some ways. It allows the FOMC to pursue average inflation targeting…
It is hard to say much about the upcoming US elections. Biden is so bland as to be much like…
The primary focus of the ECB remains on fostering a sustainable recovery. The current policy stance fits with that. And…
We have avoided taking a position in sterling throughout the Brexit negotiations; the odds were too binary. But the government’s…
And so the deckchairs are folded in the garden shed, the beach towels ranged and fragrant in the hotpress and…
Our currency convictions are 1) short USD/long EUR; 2) short BRL, TRY, BRL, INR, IDR) v long EUR; plus 3)…
If you think of places as planets, Hong Kong is a very small planet indeed and China a big one…
We do have a V-shaped recovery. But there are two big “ifs”. What happens when the state bailouts end? And…
The long-awaited approval of the European Union Recovery Fund marks another seminal step towards closer European integration. Like all of…
Turkey’s easy monetary policy stance and domestic credit boom is starting to feed back into higher inflation. But with the…
We do not think that China can win the Cold War with the United States. Last month we published a…
This report looks at where and how the economic recovery from Covid could be sustainable. Countries that will do better…
The pandemic might have shattered the economy and ushered in ever more aggressive interventionism from the monetary and fiscal authorities.…
Writing a year or more ago when we floated the idea of the superiority of techno-autocracies over liberal democracies, it…
It is something of a consensus view that equities are an inflation hedge. But this is only true if demand…
The financial crisis, subsequent Eurozone debt crisis and Japanese reflation (in name only) transformed the role of power money. Central…
We are cutting our long US dollar positions. The dollar index (DXY) has fallen from 99 to 97 in a…
Opinion about the “next generation EU”, announced by the EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on 27 May, will…
The downturn in developed markets (DMs) will be savage, with no hint of the ‘V-shaped’ recoveries that were sold as…
The China-US cold war is upon us. It is unfolding as expected, but the pace is now accelerating. It means…
In January, during Chinese New Year, I had started writing about Covid-19 — warning clients of its potential to destroy.…
A Hong Kong (HK) political crisis is brewing beyond Covid. There are two elements. First, Hong Kong is a perfect…
The measures being introduced by the US to control the export of technology to China have four qualities. They can…
The immediate hit from Covid-19 is to society and to economic welfare. A significant longer-term issue will be how this…
We have set out our store a long time ago as regards the post Covid-19 macro setting and asset allocation:…
Even in times of great uncertainty, obvious things still happen. Shuttering much of the global economy crushed demand. That was…
It is striking how little is known, but how widespread is the conviction, that once the pandemic wanes things will…
The rates of Covid-19 new daily infections are starting to roll over. Over Easter globally there were around 70k new…
War horse (30 March 2020) sketched the architecture of a war economy versus a pandemic economy. This note goes further.…
Even before the Covid-19 crisis, about one quarter of US quoted corporations were cash flow negative. This is because they…
Fighting them on the beaches is different when the invisible enemy is little purple and red Covid blobs with spiky…
If all country pandemics were the same then we’d have a good understanding as to how this current global crisis…
The economic shock from Covid-19 is being underestimated. This is natural when the immediate priority is safeguarding human life. This…
