The Fed might have moved closer to exiting the emergency measures implemented to counter the pandemic, but the FOMC still…
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Binary warfare NEW
Cyberwarfare remains a significantly underappreciated threat. Its dangers are numerous, even absent of a full-blown conflict between the major powers.…
A testing moment NEW
The AUKUS agreement will deepen the cold war with China. And it has repercussions in the EU and for US…
Disruption of supply chains will have significant effects on current global growth, inflation and equity margins. But it goes beyond…
The centre-left’s victory in Norway’s general election keeps the more radical parties that markets were worried about out of power.…
Today’s Governing Council meeting shows the ECB is steady as she goes. The reduction in the pace of purchases for…
Often a good strategist is seen as someone who can knit together a good story out of random variables and…
Shared prosperity is for real in China. The coherence between the fragmented state interventions we have already seen and the…
Change is good NEW
The CDU/CSU will lose the next election. So after 16 years of rule Germany will finally get a new government.…
In his Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair sided with the doves and dismissed the risks of inflation. But the Fed…
The fall of Kabul raises questions about Biden’s competence and increases the chance that this will be a one-term Democratic…
The Afghan disaster is likely to mark the start of the collapse in the credibility of the Biden administration. There…
Hope, hype and then the reality is the best way to think about the IPCC report. Aside from some tougher…
The Covid-19 Delta strain and the economy are likely to reconnect globally. China’s policy to contain this mutation is both…
US growth should remain robust. While government transfers continue to be pared back, the resurgence of the service sector will…
The Saw Tooth recovery created by the pandemic generates demand at different rates in different areas at different times. This…
There are two key variables to consider when investing in Chinese assets. First, the change in Chinese Communist Party (CCP)…
President Lagarde seemed hopeful that the ECB’s new inflation framework was a positive step forward. But the policy response seems…
Poor political decision-making has allowed the Covid-19 Delta variant to get a foothold among un-vaccinated groups. These still make up…
The idea that the US housing market is nearing bubble territory is far removed from reality. Prices might be rising,…
While the spread of the Delta variant is concentrated in healthy young adults in the developed economies, and vaccination coverage…
The ECB’s adjustment to its inflation targeting framework will require an ‘easier for longer’ policy stance. It might even necessitate…
This is about the shape of the economic cycle. The pandemic has created a new cycle: the ‘saw tooth’. We…
Headline data suggest the European pandemic experience entailed far more economic damage than seen in the US. Indeed, US GDP…
The outcome of the fairly low-key French regional elections at the weekend shouldn’t spook investors. The result was a fairly…
The jump in Taiwan’s already large external surpluses is not a one-off increase that will be corrected. Demand for the…
The Fed wake-up call was an event long awaited and long foreseen. But market response was not as I thought.…
The Fed has blinked. The committee sees a need for higher rates sooner than Powell had hoped. But the Fed’s…
While the green revolution continues to gather steam, there is still a high degree of procrastination going on. The radical…
We have been long agricultural commodities (corn, wheat, soyabeans) since 18 January 2021 (see our report Buying food). Prices have…
Italy’s Target 2 story is a microcosm of a macrocosm and one that tells us a lot about the ECB,…
The CDU victory (of sorts) in the final regional election before September’s federal election reaffirm all our European strategic positions:…
Some things are clear. Lasting stimulus, particularly in the US, will keep demand above what the supply-side was traditionally capable…
It may be useful to set down our major recommendations and how they have changed recently. We have switched on…
“It’s true that hard work never killed anybody, but I figure, why take the chance?” Ronald Reagan apparently once quipped.…
The dollar’s relatively better poise over the first quarter looks to be over. Bidenomics and the US money printing this…
The thing you just can’t be neutral about is EU, Italian and Spanish restructuring plans. If these programmes succeed, we…
The surge in US April inflation is not a one-off but reflects the rekindling of inflation. This has significant investment…
As vaccination rates in advanced nations move them closer to herd immunity and their economies fully reopen — at least…
We divide our long currency portfolio into two categories: the “Laggards” who should normalise policy but won’t (US dollar, British…
The German federal elections on 26 September are likely to bring the Greens to power. Contrary to common perception, this…
This summarises our strategic positions. Perhaps it could be more aptly named the ‘bare bones of it’. Because bearish I…
“Oh Wonder! How many goodly creatures are there here! How beauteous mankind is! O brave new world that has such…
This is the fourth thing (outlined in this week’s reports) that will shape our world … and of course investments.…
Four things (outlined in this week’s reports) will shape our world … and of course investments. We now head to…
The German Constitutional Court has rejected the application for an injunction to stop the German President from signing the draft…
Four things (outlined in this week’s reports) will shape our world … and of course investments. Here our viewpoint moves…
“Time present and time past Are both perhaps present in time future, And time future contained in time past.” T.…
The Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) between the EU and China looks to be dead in the water. This will…
The EU’s Next Generation Fund (NGEU), a significant step in EU fiscal integration, is under threat from the German Constitutional…
